95 - (GIR x 2) = Predicted Score

How well does the formula predict your actual scores? 237 rounds analyzed.

Avg Difference

+5.2

strokes over predicted

Exact Matches

of 237 rounds (3%)

Within 3 Strokes

31% of rounds

Scored Higher

90%

of rounds exceed prediction

Predicted vs Actual Score

Each dot is a round. Dots on the diagonal line = formula was exactly right. Dots above = you scored higher than predicted.

Difference Distribution (Actual - Predicted)

Positive = scored higher than predicted. Negative = beat the prediction.

Accuracy by GIR Count

GIR	Rounds	Predicted	Avg Actual	Avg Diff	Accuracy
1	3	93	93.3	+0.3	33%
2	3	91	92.7	+1.7	67%
3	17	89	91.9	+2.9	59%
4	21	87	89.9	+2.9	67%
5	36	85	89.4	+4.4	42%
6	38	83	87.5	+4.5	32%
7	39	81	86.6	+5.6	26%
8	40	79	85.5	+6.5	13%
9	20	77	83.3	+6.3	15%
10	7	75	82.4	+7.4	0%
11	7	73	83	+10	0%
12	3	71	80	+9	33%
13	2	69	80.5	+11.5	0%
14	1	67	81	+14	0%

The Formula's Hidden Assumptions

Formula assumes

On GIR Holes: 2 Putts

Hit the green, two-putt for par. The "x 2" in the formula IS two putts per GIR.

Your reality

2.07 Putts Per GIR

You three-putt 15.1% of GIR holes (1/round). Each adds a stroke the formula doesn't expect.

Formula assumes

Missed Green = Bogey

The "95" constant assumes every missed green is a bogey: chip on, two-putt, move on.

Your reality

33% of Missed Greens = Double+

3.8 holes per roundturn into doubles or worse — the "blowup holes."

Your +5.2 Stroke Gap, Explained

Three sources account for every extra stroke beyond the formula's prediction:

Blowup holes
(double bogey+ on missed greens)

3.8 holes/round

+4.7

Penalty strokes
(77% of rounds have at least one)

1.9/round

+1.9

Three-putts on GIR
(15.1% of greens you hit)

1/round

Total explained: +7.6(Offset by up-and-downs that beat the bogey assumption, netting to your actual +5.2)

What Happens When You Miss a Green?

2,718 missed-green holes. The formula assumes all are bogeys.

Par or better (up & down): 10.3%

Bogey (the "check mark"): 57%

Double bogey: 24.2%

Triple bogey+: 8.6%

What Happens When You Hit the Green?

1,548 GIR holes. The formula assumes 2 putts on every one.

Avg Putts on GIR

2.07

Formula assumes 2.00

Three-Putts on GIR

15.1%

1 per round

One-Putts (Birdies)

7.6%

from GIR holes

The Scoring Method's Advice, Applied to Your Game

Biggest opportunity: Eliminate 1-2 blowup holes per round = 2-4 strokes saved instantly
Penalty avoidance: 77% of your rounds have penalty strokes (1.9/round avg). Play safer off the tee on trouble holes.
Short game 3:1 over ball striking: You miss ~11.5 greens per round. Your up-and-down rate is only 10.3%. Even getting to 20% saves ~1 stroke/round.
Lag putting: 1 three-putt(s) per round on greens you hit. Pace over line inside 30+ feet.
The formula works when you play "boring golf": bogey is the target on missed greens, not par. Avoid the hero shot.

Recent Rounds

Date	Course	GIR	Predicted	Actual	Diff
6/4/26	Connestee Falls	3	89	93	+4
6/2/26	Etowah Valley	4	87	92	+5
5/28/26	Springdale	8	79	85	+6
5/21/26	Connestee Falls	7	81	88	+7
5/7/26	Lake Toxaway	8	79	90	+11
4/30/26	Cummings Cove	6	83	85	+2
4/24/26	Cummings Cove	8	79	83	+4
4/16/26	Kenmure	5	85	94	+9
4/2/26	Chestnut Mountain Golf	5	85	95	+10
3/13/26	Crooked Creek	5	85	89	+4
3/6/26	Connestee Falls	8	79	92	+13
2/20/26	Cummings Cove	6	83	89	+6
2/13/26	Connestee Falls	7	81	84	+3
2/6/26	Cherokee Valley	3	89	89	Even
1/13/26	Etowah Valley	6	83	91	+8
1/1/26	Springdale	7	81	88	+7
12/26/25	Connestee Falls	7	81	87	+6
12/24/25	Springdale	7	81	86	+5
12/11/25	The Rock	7	81	88	+7
12/4/25	Cummings Cove	7	81	87	+6
11/28/25	Cummings Cove	4	87	94	+7
11/20/25	Connestee Falls	9	77	85	+8
11/14/25	Etowah Valley	7	81	89	+8
11/4/25	Crooked Creek	5	85	95	+10
10/16/25	Springdale	11	73	89	+16
10/9/25	Crooked Creek	4	87	86	-1
10/2/25	Cummings Cove	4	87	86	-1
9/26/25	Connestee Falls	10	75	79	+4
9/17/25	Etowah Valley	8	79	89	+10
9/11/25	Champion Hills	7	81	86	+5
9/9/25	Connestee Falls	5	85	91	+6
8/28/25	Cummings Cove	14	67	81	+14
8/8/25	Connestee Falls	6	83	90	+7
8/2/25	Etowah Valley	9	77	81	+4
7/24/25	Cummings Cove	7	81	85	+4
7/8/25	Etowah Valley	8	79	89	+10
7/1/25	Connestee Falls	9	77	78	+1
6/19/25	Connestee Falls	6	83	83	Even
6/12/25	Crooked Creek	7	81	81	Even
5/15/25	Springdale	8	79	83	+4